Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.109636 1.295460 1.502453 1.750092 2.038322 2.363257 2.757486
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.800480 1.043769 1.345514 1.747189 2.268039 2.920976 3.802547
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.641721 0.905056 1.257512 1.763594 2.472003 3.429296 4.823346
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.513482 0.771988 1.140109 1.702286 2.539726 3.742543 5.605151
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.466510 0.741092 1.153554 1.817789 2.861691 4.441791 7.021453
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.392075 0.654422 1.067844 1.766108 2.917460 4.744050 7.870769
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.331575 0.579027 0.986417 1.705094 2.943191 4.993431 8.657964
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.284200 0.517521 0.917529 1.652197 2.970235 5.241137 9.465603
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.258226 0.488952 0.899737 1.683081 3.142580 5.751802 10.789737
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.247214 0.485594 0.925327 1.793983 3.470869 6.574384 12.779680
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.229983 0.467796 0.921533 1.848438 3.699138 7.238956 14.555443
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.211373 0.444516 0.903894 1.872859 3.870790 7.814048 16.226472
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.190481 0.414318 0.869953 1.862661 3.977203 8.285083 17.774021
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.172103 0.386913 0.838329 1.853525 4.085883 8.777043 19.438536
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.158305 0.367371 0.820373 1.870643 4.251789 9.406831 21.479687
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.139652 0.334221 0.768519 1.805619 4.227620 9.624626 22.637422
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.136869 0.337320 0.797588 1.928098 4.643825 10.863932 26.282780
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.122234 0.310070 0.753528 1.873296 4.638813 11.146113 27.721718
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.108732 0.283667 0.707977 1.808596 4.601018 11.346028 28.987199
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.097295 0.260850 0.668117 1.752504 4.576699 11.574295 30.352018
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.091779 0.252632 0.663452 1.785254 4.781617 12.390308 33.319819
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.090821 0.256443 0.689933 1.902854 5.222601 13.854675 38.173901
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.086993 0.251855 0.693864 1.960597 5.511670 14.962589 42.221121